Poland Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
This latest Poland Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.77% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing less than 0.2% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 6.05mn b/d in 2010 and to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is forecast to rise to 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and to reach 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Poland’s share of 2010 gas consumption is an estimated 2.20%, while it will have made a 0.55% contribution to regional supply. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.41%, with Poland providing 0.45% of supply. The growing interest in Polish shale gas is unlikely to provide any significant additional volumes by this time.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40/bbl and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from 2009. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Polish real GDP rising 3.4% in 2010 and we expect average annual growth of 4.1% from 2010-2015. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 607,000b/d by 2015, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 582,000b/d. We forecast gas consumption reaching 18.0bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 13.7bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Polish oil consumption of 17.2%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 526,000b/d to 635,000b/d by the end of the 10-year period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 14.0bcm in 2010 to 20.9bcm by 2020, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 37.5% between 2010 and 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Poland now holds third place behind Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes third place ahead of Turkey and Russia in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. The licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, ranked equal second alongside Turkey and behind only Russia. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-best competitive landscape."
In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Poland’s share of 2010 gas consumption is an estimated 2.20%, while it will have made a 0.55% contribution to regional supply. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.41%, with Poland providing 0.45% of supply. The growing interest in Polish shale gas is unlikely to provide any significant additional volumes by this time.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40/bbl and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from 2009. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Polish real GDP rising 3.4% in 2010 and we expect average annual growth of 4.1% from 2010-2015. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 607,000b/d by 2015, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 582,000b/d. We forecast gas consumption reaching 18.0bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 13.7bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Polish oil consumption of 17.2%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 526,000b/d to 635,000b/d by the end of the 10-year period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 14.0bcm in 2010 to 20.9bcm by 2020, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 37.5% between 2010 and 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Poland now holds third place behind Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes third place ahead of Turkey and Russia in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. The licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, ranked equal second alongside Turkey and behind only Russia. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-best competitive landscape."
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Poland Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Poland Upstream Rating – Overview
Poland Upstream Rating – Rewards
Poland Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Poland Downstream Rating – Overview
Poland Downstream Rating – Rewards
Poland Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Poland Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Poland Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Poland
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/ Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland – GDP By Expenditure
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Poland Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
PKN Orlen
Grupa Lotos
Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG)
Przedsiębiorstwo Eksploatacji Rurociągów Naftowych (PERN)
BP Poland
Shell Poland
Aurelian Oil and Gas
FX Energy
Statoil – Summary
MOL – Summary
Eni/ Minsk Energy Resources – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Neste Oil – Summary
Gaz System – Summary
Operator Logistyczny Paliw Płynnych (OLPP) – Summary
Talisman Energy – Summary
Lane Energy – Summary
San Leon Energy – Summary
BNK Petroleum – Summary
Petrolinvest – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Marathon Oil – Summary
Realm Energy – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Poland Country Overview
Methodology And Risks to Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
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