Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q2 2014

Date: February 12, 2014
Pages: 81
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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BMI View: Over the short term, we are relatively pessimistic in terms of production growth for Zimbabwe, forecasting output declines for corn and sugar. For corn, this is a continuation of a trend that has seen the country turn from a net exporter to a significant importer in 2013/14. Over the long term, we expect production of the grain to show a moderate rebound, although this will partly be due to base effects, and we see the country remaining a net importer over the long term. We are slightly more optimistic regarding the sugar sector, where access to key markets and potential for productivity improvements will drive production over the long term. Although we forecast a domestic sugar market surplus, the sector remains below potential, and our forecasts are relatively subdued.

Key Forecasts

Corn production to 2017/18: 8.7% on the 2012/13 level to 1.05mn tonnes. After an estimated decline of nearly 41% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012/13, we forecast another output decline in 2013/14. We project mild growth over the long term, but supply will not reach previous levels.

Sugar production to 2017/18: up 13.5% on the 2012/13 level to 544,700 tonnes. An overall improvement in sugar cane yields, greater efficiency of mills and long-term access to export markets will be key drivers of production growth.
BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: Zimbabwe Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
  Table: Zimbabwe Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Zimbabwe Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
  Table: Zimbabwe Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Monthly Grains Update
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Africa Machinery Outlook
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food Consumption
  Table: Total Food Consumption, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
  Table: Alcohol
Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Zimbabwe's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Zimbabwe's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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