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Zimbabwe's agricultural sector is vulnerable to unfavourable weather, as well as a lack of fertiliser, investments and government support, representing threats to our overall optimistic outlook. The recent outbreak of Spodoptera frugiperda (army worm) in January, which affected half of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces, has prompted us to downgrade our 2012/13 corn production forecast. That said, given the scale of problems faced by wheat producers, we continue to see corn outperforming in the medium-tolong term. We hold an optimistic view for segments such as sugar, cotton and tobacco but highlight that clear government policy and timely support will be vital if Zimbabwe's agricultural sector is to catch up with its regional peers.
Key Forecasts
Zimbabwe's agricultural sector is vulnerable to unfavourable weather, as well as a lack of fertiliser, investments and government support, representing threats to our overall optimistic outlook. The recent outbreak of Spodoptera frugiperda (army worm) in January, which affected half of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces, has prompted us to downgrade our 2012/13 corn production forecast. That said, given the scale of problems faced by wheat producers, we continue to see corn outperforming in the medium-tolong term. We hold an optimistic view for segments such as sugar, cotton and tobacco but highlight that clear government policy and timely support will be vital if Zimbabwe's agricultural sector is to catch up with its regional peers.
Key Forecasts
- Corn production to 2016/17: -5.6% on the 2012 level to 1.32mn tonnes. A nearly 41% yearon- year (y-o-y) decline in production is forecast for 2012/13; however, we expect a strong rebound in the 2013/14 harvest season. Investment in the industry, abolition of price controls and availability of fertiliser have proved positive, but mixed government policy is likely to dampen growth.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Zimbabwe Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Zimbabwe Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Sugar Outlook
Table: Zimbabwe Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Zimbabwe Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Strategy
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Monthly Grains Strategy
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Africa Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Zimbabwe's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Zimbabwe's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
SWOT Analysis
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Zimbabwe Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Zimbabwe Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Sugar Outlook
Table: Zimbabwe Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Zimbabwe Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Strategy
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Monthly Grains Strategy
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Africa Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Zimbabwe's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Zimbabwe's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
