Report on Analysis and Forecast of China Fertilizer (2009-2010)

Date: February 1, 2010
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Publisher: Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co., Ltd
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: RB6A298C094EN
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Report on Analysis and Forecast of China Fertilizer (2009-2010)
Research Background

Under the influence of the financial crisis, changes in the fertilizer market were as follows in 2009:
  1. Prices of fertilizer varieties and fertilizer raw materials such as synthetic ammonia sulfur and so on, declined compared with the 2008.
  2. The output of fertilizer varieties and fertilizer raw materials such as sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia and Phosphate Rock etc, continued to increase.
  3. In 2008, the total fertilizer demand only increased by 21,000 metric tons(nutrient, the same below) compared with the 2007 under the high fertilizer prices. And the N-fertilizer and complex fertilizer demand respectively increased by 3.1% and 1.1%, but the phosphate and potash fertilizer demand decreased by 5.1% and 26.2%..
  4. In 2009, the urea export volume declines from last year with the international demand decrease and the low or high export tariff in the low season in China. DAP export volume increased largely from 2008 because the oversupply of China; Influenced by large stocks of potash fertilizer and the limitation of terminal consumption, the potash fertilize import volume decreased compared with 2008; The export volume of NPK-fertilizer kept low because of the high export tariff.
  5. Influenced by the low Pricesof raw materials, the production cost of urea, MAP, DAP and SOP, etc, declined largely compared with 2008.

In the report, our team will analysis the changes in N-fertilizer, the phosphate fertilizer, the potash fertilizer and the complex fertilizer in 2009 according to the policies related to fertilizer industry and the supply-demand, the import and export, the Pricesof upstream products (Eg; sulfur, coal, synthetic ammonia, phosphate rock), and then analysis the supply-demand, the import and export, the enterprise distribution, the production costs and market prices of the major fertilizer varieties in 2009.At last, our team will analysis the supply and demand of fertilizers and forecast market changes in 2010 according to supply-demand balance sheet of nitrogenous fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and urea and potassium fertilizer.

There are clear views, detailed and accurate data in this report as a reference for related subjects of the market.
RESEARCH BACKGROUND II

PART ONE: RELATED POLICY ANALYSIS OF CHINA FERTILIZER INDUSTRY IN 2009

1.1 Changes in Fertilizer Import and Export Policy and Effects
1.2 Changes in Upstream and Downstream Industry of Fertilizer and Effect on the Fertilizer Industry
  1.2.1 Effect of Coal Resources Integration on the Fertilizer Industry
  1.2.2 Effect of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism on the Fertilizer Industry
  1.2.3 Effect of Policies of Agricultural Production Materials on the Fertilizer Industry

PART TWO: UPSTREAM PRODUCT SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS OF CHINA FERTILIZER IN 2009

2.1 China Coal and Natural Gas Supply
  2.1.1 China Energy Structure
  2.1.2 China Anthracite
    2.1.2.1 Anthracite Supply and Demand
    2.1.2.2 Changes in China Anthracite Prices
  2.1.3 Natural Gas Prices Used by Fertilizer Enterprises
2.2 Synthetic ammonia
  2.2.1 Growth Rate with 4.77% of China Synthetic Ammonia Output During 2000-2009
  2.2.2 Major Producing Province (Shandong, Henan, etc) of China Synthetic Ammonia
  2.2.3 Synthetic Ammonia Import and Export Trade
    2.2.3.1 Synthetic Ammonia Import Increases Year by Year
    2.2.3.2 Synthetic Ammonia Export Volume is 426 MT
  2.2.4 Prices Analysis on China Synthetic Ammonia
2.3 Sulphur and Sulfuricacid
  2.3.1 Average Growth Rate with 9.94% of China Sulfuricacid Output During 2000-2009
  2.3.2 Area Concentration for Sulfuric Acid Production
  2.3.3 China Sulphur Imports Reach 12.463 Million MT
  2.3.4 Prices Analysis on Solid and Liquid Sulphur
2.4 Phosphate Rock
  2.4.1 Average Growth Rate with 12.5% of China Phosphate Rock Output During 2000-2009
  2.4.2 The phosphate rock output concentrates in Yunnan, Hubei, Guizhou, Szechwan, etc.
  2.4.3 China Phosphate Rock Exports decrease to 0.379 million MT in China
  2.4.4 Prices Analysis on China Phosphate Rock

PART THREE: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF N-FERTILIZER MARKET IN CHINA

3.1 N-Fertilizer Production in China
  3.1.1 N-fertilizer Output Increased in China
  3.1.2 Urea Output Increased in China
  3.1.3 Regional Distribution of China Urea
  3.1.4 New Added Urea Capacity of 4.73 Million MT
  3.1.5 Urea Cost and Profit in 2009
    3.1.5.1 Urea Cost and Profit Using Coal as a Raw Material
    3.1.5.2 Urea Cost and Profit Using Natural Gas as a Raw Material
3.2 China N-Fertilizer Consumption in 2008
  3.2.1 N-Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture with a Slight Year-On-Year Increase
  3.2.2 Urea Direct Consumption for Agriculture with a 5% Year-On-Year Increase
  3.2.3 ABC Direct Consumption for Agriculture with 200,000 MT Year-On-Year Decrease
3.3 China N-Fertilizer Import and Export Trade in 2009
  3.3.1 Urea Import and Export Trade
    3.3.1.1 Urea Imports Reach 39,000 MT
    3.3.1.2 China as a Net Urea Exporter
  3.3.2 Ammonium Chloride Import and Export Trade
    3.3.2.1 Ammonium chloride Import is much Small
    3.3.2.2 The Ammonium chloride export is 0.233 Million MT
  3.3.3 Ammonium Sulphate Trade
    3.3.3.1 Ammonium Sulphate Import is only 724.2 MT
    3.3.3.2 Ammonium Sulphate Export Increases to 0.879 Million MT
3.4 N-fertilizer Market PricesChanges in 2009 and Market Forecast in 2010
  3.4.1 Urea Prices Changes and Market Forecast
  3.4.2 ABC Prices Changes and Market Forecast
  3.4.3 Ammonium Chloride Prices Changes and Market Forecast
  3.4.4 Ammonium Sulphate Prices Changes and Market Forecast
3.5 N-Fertilizer Supply-Demand Balance
  3.5.1 China N-Fertilizer Output to Increase in 2010
  3.5.2 China Urea Output to Increase in 2010

PART FOUR: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER IN CHINA MARKET

4.1 China Phosphate Fertilizer Production
  4.1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Output Increases by 2.308 Million MT from 2008
  4.1.2 Ammonium Phosphate Output Increases to 17.778 Million MT
  4.1.3 Ammonium Phosphate Mainly Distributes in Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, etc
  4.1.4 New Added Ammonium Phosphate Production Capacity of 5.11 Million MT
  4.1.5 Ammonium Phosphate Cost and Profit in 2009
    4.1.5.1 MAP Cost and Profit
    4.1.5.2 DAP Cost and Profit
4.2 China Phosphate Fertilizer Consumption in 2008
  4.2.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture with a Slight Decrease in 2008 from Last Year
  4.2.2 DAP Direct Consumption for Agriculture with a 10% Decrease in2008 from Last Year
4.3 China Phosphate Fertilizer Import and Export Trade
  4.3.1 MAP Import and Export Trade
    4.3.1.1 MAP Import Volume is 11,000 MT
    4.3.1.2 China as a Net Exporter of MAP
  4.3.2 DAP Import and Export Trade
    4.3.2.1 Import is 0.433 Million MT
  4.3.2.2China as a Net Exporter of DAP
4.4 Phosphate Fertilizer Market PricesChanges and Market Forecast
  4.4.1 MAP (55% Powder) Market PricesChanges and Market Forecast
  4.4.2 DAP (55% Powder) Market PricesChanges and Market Forecast
4.5 Phosphate Fertilizer Supply-Demand Balance

PART FIVE: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF POTASH FERTILIZER IN CHINA MARKET

5.1 Potash Fertilizer Production in China
  5.1.1 China Potash Fertilizer Output Increased
  5.1.2 Potash Fertilizer Enterprises Mainly Concentrate in Qinghai
  5.1.3 New Added Potash Fertilizer Capacity of 0.77 Million MT
  5.1.4 SOP Cost and Profit in 2009
5.2 China Potash Fertilizer Consumption in 2008
  5.2.1 Direct Potash Fertilizer Consumption for Agriculture, down 26.2%
  5.2.2 Direct MOP Consumption for Agriculture, down 34.7%
5.3 Potash Fertilizer Import and Export Trade
  5.3.1 MOP Import and Export Trade
    5.3.1.1 MOP Imports, the Lowest in History
    5.3.1.2 MOP Exports Reach 0.278 Million MT
  5.3.2 SOP Import and Export Trade
    5.3.2.1 China as a Net SOP Importer
    5.3.2.2 Exports are 293 MT
5.4 Potash Fertilizer Market PricesChanges and Market Forecast
  5.4.1 MOP Market PricesChanges and Market Forecast
  5.4.2 SOP Market PricesChanges and Market Forecast
5.5 Potash Fertilizer Supply-Demand Balance
PART SIX: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF POTASH FERTILIZER IN CHINA MARKET
6.1 Compound Fertilizer Production in China
  6.1.1 NPK Output Keeps Growing
  6.1.2 NPK is Widely Distributed
  6.1.3 New Added NPK Capacity of 6.66 Million MT
6.2 Complex Fertilizer Consumption with a Slight Increase in 2008 from Last Year
  6.2.1 Compound Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture with a Slight Increase in 2008 from Last Year
  6.2.2 Mixed Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture with a Slight Decrease in 2008 from Last Year
6.3 China Compound Fertilizer Import and Export Trade
  6.3.1 NPK Imports are much Higher than Exports
  6.3.2 NPK-Fertilizer Market Prices Changes and Market Forecast

FIGURE CONTENTS

Fig.1, China Energy Structure in 2008
Fig.2, China Anthracite Prices, 2007-2009
Fig.3, China Synthetic Ammonia Output, 2000-2009
Fig.4, China Synthetic Ammonia Output Proportion by Province, 2007-2009
Fig.5, China Synthetic Ammonia Import Volume, 2006-2009
Fig.6, China Synthetic Ammonia CIF by Month, 2006-2009
Fig.7, China Synthetic Ammonia Export Volume, 2006-2009
Fig.8, FactoryChina Synthetic Ammonia Prices by Region, 2008-2009
Fig.9, Changes in China Sulfuricacid Output, 2000-2009
Fig.10, China Sulfuricacid Output Proportion by Province, 2007-2009
Fig.11, China Sulfur Import Volume, 2006-2009
Fig.12, China Sulfur CIF by month, 2007-2009
Fig.13, Factory Prices of Solid and Liquid Sulfur in China, 2007-2009
Fig.14, Changes in China Phosphate Rock Output, 2000-2009
Fig.15, China Phosphate Rock Output Proportion by Province, 2007-2009
Fig.16, China Phosphate Rock Export Volume, 2007-2009
Fig.17, China Phosphate Rock FOB by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.18, Factory Prices of China Phosphate Rock (30% content) in China, 2008-2009
Fig.19, China N-Fertilizer Output, 2002-2009
Fig.20, China N-Fertilizer Output Proportion by Province in the Last 3 Years
Fig.21, Changes in China Urea Output, 2002-2009
Fig.22, China Urea Output Proportion by Province in the Last 3Years
Fig.23, Map of China Major Urea Enterprises by Capacity
Fig.24, Map of China’s Major Urea Enterprises by Area
Fig.25, Average Urea Production Cost Using Coal as a Raw Material, 2008-2009
Fig.26, N-Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture by Province in 2008
Fig.27, N-Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture by Crops in 2008
Fig.28, China Urea Consumption, 2002-2009
Fig.29, Changes in China Urea Direct Consumption for Agriculture and Complex Fertilizer Industry, 2002-2009
Fig.30, Urea Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.31, Urea Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.32, ABC Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.33, ABC Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.34, Changes in China Urea Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.35, China Urea Export, 2000-2009
Fig.36, China Urea FOB by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.37, Changes in China Urea Export by Country of Destination, 2006-2009
Fig.38, Changes in China Urea Export by Customs, 2007-2009
Fig.39, China Ammonium Chloride Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.40, China Ammonium Chloride Export Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.41, China Ammonium Chloride FOB by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.42, China Ammonium Sulphate Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.43, China Ammonium Sulphate Export Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.44, China Ammonium Sulphate FOB by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.45, Wholesale Pricesof Urea in Hubei and the Whole Country, 2007-2009
Fig.46, Factory Pricesof ABC in Major Provinces, 2008-2009
Fig.47, Average Factory Pricesof ABC in the Whole Country, 2007-2009
Fig.48, Factory Pricesof Ammonium Sulphate in the Whole Country, 2007-2009
Fig.49, China Phosphate Fertilizer Output, 2002-2009
Fig.50, China Phosphate Fertilizer Output Proportion by Province in the Last 3Years
Fig.51, Changes in China Ammonium Phosphate Output, 2005-2009
Fig.52, China Ammonium Phosphate Output Proportion by Province in the Last 3Years
Fig.53, Map of Major MAP Enterprises Capacity in China
Fig.54, Map of China’s Major MAP Enterprises by Region
Fig.55, Map of China’s Major DAP Enterprises by Capacity
Fig.56, Map of China’s Major DAP Enterprises by Region
Fig.57, MAP Production Average Costs, 2008-2009
Fig.58, DAP Production Average Costs, 2008-2009
Fig.59, Phosphate Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.60, Phosphate Fertilizer Direct Consumptionby Crops in 2008
Fig.61, DAP Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.62, DAP Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.63, Changes in China MAP Import Volume, 2006-2009
Fig.64, China MAP Export Volume, 2006-2009
Fig.65, China MAP FOB by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.66, Changes in China MAP Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2009
Fig.67, Changes in China DAP Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.68, China DAP Export Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.69, China DAP FOB by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.70, Changes in China DAP Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2009
Fig.71, Prevailing Factory Prices of MAP (55% Powder) in Hubei and China Southwest, 2007-2009
Fig.72, Factory Prices of DAP (64% Powder) in Hubei and China Southwest, 2007-2009
Fig.73, Changes in China Potash Fertilizer Output, 2002-2009
Fig.74, China Potash Fertilizer Output Proportion by Province in the Last 3Years
Fig.75, Map of China’s Major Potash Fertilizer Enterprises by Capacity
Fig.76, Map of China’s Major Potash Fertilizer Enterprises by Region
Fig.77, Average SOP Production Costs in China, 2008-2009
Fig.78, Potash Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.79, Potash Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.80, MOP Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.81, MOP Direct Consumptionby Crops in 2008
Fig.82, China MOP Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.83, China MOP CIF by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.84, Changes in China MOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Fig.85, Changes in China MOP Import by Customs, 2007-2009
Fig.86, China MOP Export Volume, 2001-2009
Fig.87, China SOP Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.88, China SOP CIF by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.89, Changes in China SOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Fig.90, Changes in China SOP Import by Customs, 2007-2009
Fig.91, China SOP Export Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.92, Average Factory Pricesof Domestic 60% Crystal MOP, 2007-2009
Fig.93, CIF of Russia 60% White Potassium and Red Potassium by Port, 2007-2009
Fig.94, Average Factory Prices of SOP (50% power and 50% pellet), 2007-2009
Fig.95, China Compound Fertilizer Output, 2006-2009
Fig.96, Map of China’s Major Compound Fertilizer Enterprises by Capacity
Fig.97, Map of China’s Major Compound Fertilizer Enterprises by Area
Fig.98, Complex Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.99, Complex Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.100, Compound Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.101, Compound Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.102, Mixed Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Province in 2008
Fig.103, Mixed Fertilizer Direct Consumption by Crops in 2008
Fig.104, China NPK Import Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.105, China NPK CIF by Month, 2007-2009
Fig.106, Changes in China NPK Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Fig.107, China NPK Export Volume, 2000-2009
Fig.108, Average Prices of 45% Cl-based and 45% S-based compound Fertilizer, 2007-2009

TABLE CONTENTS

Table1, China Total Energy Production and Structure, 1978-2008
Table2, China Synthetic Ammonia Output by Month, 2007-2009
Table3, China Synthetic Ammonia Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table4, China Synthetic Ammonia Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table5, China Synthetic Ammonia Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table6, China Sulfuricacid Output by Month, 2007-2009
Table7, China Sulfur Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table8, China Phosphate Rock Output by Month, 2007-2009
Table9, China Phosphate Rock Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table10, China Phosphate Rock Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table11, China N-fertilizer Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table12, China Urea Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table13, Urea Production Enterprise Size Distribution, 2009
Table14, Capacity of China Urea Enterprise and Group, 2009
Table15, Enterprises of Five Bigger Urea Groups
Table16, New Urea Enterprises and Capacity in 2009
Table17, China Urea Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table18, China Urea Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Table19, China Urea Import Volume by Customs, 2007-2009
Table20, China Urea Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table21, China Urea Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2009
Table22, China Urea Export Volume by Customs, 2007-2009
Table23, China Ammonium Chloride Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table24, China Ammonium Chloride Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table25, China Ammonium Sulfate Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table26, China Ammonium Sulfate Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table27, China N-Fertilizer Supply and Demand Balance, 2000-2010
Table28, China Urea Supply and Demand Balance, 2000-2010
Table29, China Phosphate Fertilizer Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table30, China Ammonium Phosphate Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table31, Capacity of China MAP Enterprise (Groups), 2009
Table32, Capacity of China DAP Enterprise (Groups), 2009
Table33, New Ammonium Phosphate Enterprise and Capacity in 2009
Table34, China MAP Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table35, China MAP Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table36, China MAP Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2009
Table37, China DAP Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table38, China DAP Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table39, China DAP Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2009
Table40, China Phosphate Fertilizer Supply and Demand Balance, 2000-2010
Table41, China Potash Fertilizer Output by Province, 2007-2009
Table42, Capacity of China Potash Fertilizer Enterprises (Group)
Table43, New Potash Fertilizer Enterprises and Capacity in 2009
Table44, China MOP Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table45, China MOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Table46 China MOP Import Volume by Customs, 2007-2009
Table47, China MOP Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table48, China SOP Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table49, China SOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Table50, China SOP Import Volume by Customs, 2007-2009
Table51, China SOP Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table52, China Potash Fertilizer Supply and Demand Balance, 2002-2010
Table53, China Coumpound Fertilizer Enterprise(Group) with More 1 million MT Capacity
Table54, New Compound Fertilizer Enterprises and Capacity in 2009
Table55, China NPK Import Volume by Month, 2007-2009
Table56, China NPK Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2009
Table57, China NPK Export Volume by Month, 2007-2009

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