Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

Date: June 5, 2013
Pages: 117
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: M34F19DB5A7EN
Leaflet:

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We are forecasting production and consumption growth across the entire agricultural complex out to 2017, although growth rates will vary widely. In general, we are very positive regarding the longterm growth story in Mexico, which we believe will be driven in part by a strong consumer story. Indeed, only consumption of whole milk powder (considered an inferior good in the country) is forecast to grow by less than 1% over our forecast period. Despite this, we have relatively subdued production forecasts as the sector suffers broadly from high feed prices, comparatively poor transport, and few export opportunities given the country's proximity to the US, the world's largest grain and livestock exporter. Indeed, over the forecast period, we see the country remaining a net importer of virtually all agricultural commodities except for coffee and sugar. Other constraints, such as reduced land availability (corn) and extensive government influence (sugar) will also contribute to constrain production.

Key Forecasts

Corn production growth to 2016/17: 32.6% to 24.0mn tonnes. We have revised down our production growth estimates for corn, as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow significantly in the coming years and usage of genetically modified seeds remains limited. The strong five-year growth figure is owing to base effects.

Sugar production growth to 2012/13: 14.7% to 6.0mn tonnes. This will be driven by good rainfall in southeast regions of the country, as the area dedicated to sugar for the 2012/13 season is expected to decline slightly owing to falling prices. Our projection for improved output comes despite work protests over low prices.

Coffee consumption growth to 2017: 13.2% to 2.2mn bags. Growth in consumption will be helped by campaigns from Mexico's coffee producers to encourage domestic consumption, since low domestic consumption makes the industry highly vulnerable to fluctuations in world demand.

2013 real GDP growth: 3.2% (down from 3.6% in 2012; predicted to average 3.0% to 2017).

Consumer price inflation (average): 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013 (down from 3.6% y-o-y in 2012).
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: Mexico Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2107
  Table: Mexico Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Mexico Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Dairy Outlook
  Table: Mexico Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Coffee Outlook
  Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Rice Outlook
  Table: Mexico Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Mexico Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Mexico Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Poultry Production & Consumption , 2007-2012
  Table: Mexico Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Monthly Grains Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
  Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
  Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2010-2017
Prepared/Canned Food
  Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Meat
  Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Fish
  Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Oils And Fats
  Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Pasta
  Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Dairy
  Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Baked Products
  Table: Baked Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
  Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
  Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
  Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2010-2017
  Table: Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
Baby Drinks Market in Mexico to 2014 US$ 495.00 Apr, 2011 · 87 pages
Bakery and Cereals in Mexico to 2013 US$ 495.00 Apr, 2010 · 201 pages
Software in Mexico US$ 350.00 Oct, 2012 · 36 pages
Pharmaceuticals in Mexico US$ 350.00 Nov, 2012 · 34 pages
Trucks in Mexico US$ 350.00 Nov, 2012 · 39 pages

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