Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: This quarter we have revised down our short-term and long-term forecasts for Ghana's cocoa sector. The sector has been affected by poor weather, especially in Western regions; up to early March, production estimates for 2012/13 are slightly lower year-on-year, with the end of the main crop harvest soon approaching. Over the long term, we believe the sector will face relatively strong obstacles, including labour shortages, aging trees and lower prices than in previous years. Government support for cocoa in Ghana is strong compared with other parts of West Africa, though more investment will be required for the sector to grow in the coming years. The country's poultry sector will receive a boost from recent investments by Nutreco, but we see the country remaining a net importer over the long term.
Key Forecasts
Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 10.5% to 950,000 tonnes. This is a downgrade from our previous growth forecast owing to aging trees and the expectation that low prices will reduce farm revenues.
Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
BMI View: This quarter we have revised down our short-term and long-term forecasts for Ghana's cocoa sector. The sector has been affected by poor weather, especially in Western regions; up to early March, production estimates for 2012/13 are slightly lower year-on-year, with the end of the main crop harvest soon approaching. Over the long term, we believe the sector will face relatively strong obstacles, including labour shortages, aging trees and lower prices than in previous years. Government support for cocoa in Ghana is strong compared with other parts of West Africa, though more investment will be required for the sector to grow in the coming years. The country's poultry sector will receive a boost from recent investments by Nutreco, but we see the country remaining a net importer over the long term.
Key Forecasts
Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 10.5% to 950,000 tonnes. This is a downgrade from our previous growth forecast owing to aging trees and the expectation that low prices will reduce farm revenues.
Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Grains Outlook
Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cocoa Outlook
Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI COMMODITY STRATEGY
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Strategy Table
Uptream Analysis
Africa Machinery Outlook
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Africa GM Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Fish
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Carbonated Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Demographic Forecast
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Ghana's Rural and Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Grains Outlook
Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cocoa Outlook
Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI COMMODITY STRATEGY
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Strategy Table
Uptream Analysis
Africa Machinery Outlook
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Africa GM Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Fish
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Carbonated Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Demographic Forecast
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Ghana's Rural and Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology