China Agribusiness Report Q4 2013

Date: September 11, 2013
Pages: 200
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: CF1B2779CA7EN
Leaflet:

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with the GDP slowing, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.

Key Forecasts
  • Corn production growth to 2016/17: 22.1% to 235.4mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of genetically modified corn in the coming years and sustained public support.
  • Pork consumption growth to 2017: 22.3% to 64.5mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for Chinese consumers, and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.
  • Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 19.0% to 14.7mn tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$537.8mn in 2013 (down 0.9% compared with 2012, growth forecast to average 3.3% annually between 2013 and 2017).
  • 2013 real GDP growth: 7.5% (from 7.7% in 2012, forecast to average 6.4% between 2013 and 2017).
  • 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.8% ave (from 2.7% in 2012, forecast to average 2.8% between 2013 and 2017).
  • 2013 central bank policy rate: 5.75% ave (from 6.00% in 2012, forecast to average 5.65% between 2013 and 2017).
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
  Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Dairy Outlook
  Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Soybean Outlook
  Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Rice Outlook
  Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
  Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Grains Outlook
  Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Livestock Outlook
  Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
  Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cotton Outlook
  Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Featured Analysis
China Agricultural Imports Spree: Winners & Losers
  Table: Select Countries - Exposure To Agricultural Exports To China, 2012
  Table: China Future Agricultural Imports - Potential Winners And Losers
  Table: Corn Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
  Table: Soybean Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
  Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
  Table: Beef Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
  Table: Pork Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
China Future Imports: Enduring Trends & New Trajectories
  Table: China - Production & Consumption Forecast For Select Commodities (kt, Unless Otherwise Stated)
  Table: China - Production & Consumption Forecast For Select Commodities ('000 tonnes, except for cotton which is '000 480 lb. bales)
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Monthly Softs Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
  Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
Asia GM Outlook
  Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
  Table: Select Countries - GM Crops, 2012
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
  Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
  Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
  Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
  Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
  Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
  Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Regional Overview
Regional Overview - Asia
  Table: Select Companies - Palm Oil Landbank, 2012
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Company Profile
People's Food Holding
  Table: People's Food Holding Financial Highlights, 2007-2012
Charoen Pokphand Foods PLC
  Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2008-2012
Wilmar International
  Table: Financial Highlights 2008-2012
Demographic Forecast
  Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology

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