Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: As the Chinese government continues to boost agriculture productivity in its drive to ensure national food security, we expect government subsidies to continue to grow. In 2011, this spending reached CNY134.5bn (USD21.2bn), with a large portion being channelled into seed, fertiliser and fuel subsidies. That said, we believe the country will inevitably grow more reliant on imports of key grains such as corn, wheat, sugar and even rice in the long term as consumption growth exceeds production growth. Yield improvement would be the fastest way to meet growing demand, and we note that the recent verbal acceptance of genetically modified (GM) seeds is an acknowledgement of the need to recalibrate the government’s previously staunch stand against GM products in this respect.
Key Forecasts
BMI View: As the Chinese government continues to boost agriculture productivity in its drive to ensure national food security, we expect government subsidies to continue to grow. In 2011, this spending reached CNY134.5bn (USD21.2bn), with a large portion being channelled into seed, fertiliser and fuel subsidies. That said, we believe the country will inevitably grow more reliant on imports of key grains such as corn, wheat, sugar and even rice in the long term as consumption growth exceeds production growth. Yield improvement would be the fastest way to meet growing demand, and we note that the recent verbal acceptance of genetically modified (GM) seeds is an acknowledgement of the need to recalibrate the government’s previously staunch stand against GM products in this respect.
Key Forecasts
- Corn consumption growth to 2016: 25.5% to 225.9mn tonnes. The main driver behind the growing domestic demand for corn is the expansion and consolidation of China’s dairy and livestock sectors, which currently account for about 70% of total corn consumed.
- Poultry production growth to 2016: Continued consolidation of the Chinese meat industry is likely to support large-scale production and increase economies of scale. This will help to meet growing demand as the national diet becomes increasingly focused on protein.
- Whole milk powder consumption growth to 2015/16: . Dairy products with a longer shelf life are generally more favoured by Asian consumers owing to safety concerns. Milk powder demand will outperform other types of dairy products.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$412.0mn in 2012; growth to average 5.2% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 7.5% (from 9.1% in 2011, forecast to average 6.9% over the next five years).
- 2012 consumer price inflation: 3.0% ave (from 4.8% in 2011, forecast to average 3.2% over the next five years).
- 2012 central bank policy rate: 6.00% ave (from 6.56% in 2011, forecast to average 5.55% over the next five years).
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Agricultural SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
China Sugar Outlook
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Dairy Outlook
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Soybean Outlook
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Rice Outlook
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Grains Outlook
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Livestock Outlook
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Cotton Outlook
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2016
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
China Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Looking Supported
Coffee: Supported In Short Term
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
Sugar: Searching For Support
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Seeds Outlook
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: China – Food Consumption Indicators, 2009-2016
Canned Food
Table: China – Canned Food And Instant Noodles, 2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: China – Confectionery, 2009-2016
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: China – Tea And Coffee, 2009-2016
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: China – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: China – Beer, 2009-2016
Table: China – Wine, 2009-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: China – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: China – MGR Sales, 2009-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: China’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: China’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: China’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: China’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
SWOT Analysis
China Agricultural SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
China Sugar Outlook
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Dairy Outlook
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Soybean Outlook
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Rice Outlook
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Grains Outlook
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Livestock Outlook
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
China Cotton Outlook
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2016
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
China Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Looking Supported
Coffee: Supported In Short Term
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
Sugar: Searching For Support
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Seeds Outlook
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: China – Food Consumption Indicators, 2009-2016
Canned Food
Table: China – Canned Food And Instant Noodles, 2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: China – Confectionery, 2009-2016
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: China – Tea And Coffee, 2009-2016
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: China – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: China – Beer, 2009-2016
Table: China – Wine, 2009-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: China – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: China – MGR Sales, 2009-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: China’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: China’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: China’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: China’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
