Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, with the country having an increasing role in international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we see particularly strong production growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with the GDP slowing down, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the mild pork production forecast for 2012/13, as producers reduce pig herd expansion on the back of low profitability.
Livestock Losing To Grains
China - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)
Note: The BMI Market Value is an addition of all domestically produced commodities' value (calculated by multiplying the production with the international benchmark prices, converted in US$/tonne); e/f = BMI estimate/ forecast. Source: BMI.
Key Forecasts
China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, with the country having an increasing role in international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we see particularly strong production growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with the GDP slowing down, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the mild pork production forecast for 2012/13, as producers reduce pig herd expansion on the back of low profitability.
Livestock Losing To Grains
China - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)
Note: The BMI Market Value is an addition of all domestically produced commodities' value (calculated by multiplying the production with the international benchmark prices, converted in US$/tonne); e/f = BMI estimate/ forecast. Source: BMI.
Key Forecasts
- Soybean consumption growth to 2017: 43.8% to 102.1mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by economic growth, which is leading to rising incomes and thus greater meat consumption. Growth will also be driven by strong demand from the livestock sector (for soybean meal), and as soybean oil is the most popular edible oil in the country.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Dairy Outlook
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Soybean Outlook
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Rice Outlook
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Grains Outlook
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Livestock Outlook
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cotton Outlook
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (US$mn)
Company Profile
Zhongpin Incorporated
Demographic Forecast
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Dairy Outlook
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Soybean Outlook
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Rice Outlook
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Grains Outlook
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Livestock Outlook
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Cotton Outlook
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (US$mn)
Company Profile
Zhongpin Incorporated
Demographic Forecast
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology