Indonesia Retail Report Q4 2010
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The Q410 BMI Indonesia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from IDR1.24trn (US$120.02bn) in 2010 to IDR2.09trn (US$201.82bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, the world’s fourth-largest population (which is growing), rising per-capita incomes and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the substantial growth forecast in Indonesian retail sales.
Indonesia’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$675.57bn in 2010 and BMI predicts average annual GDP growth of 5.7% through to 2014. With the population forecast to increase from 232.5mn in 2010 to 244.7mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to grow 63% by the end of the period, reaching US$4,732. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,450 in 2010 to US$2,183 in 2014.
Tourism plays a large part in the health of the Indonesian retail industry, with Bali – the jewel in the country’s tourism crown – generating 30% of national tourist revenue, an estimated US$3bn a year. According to government data, salaries of employees in the formal sector have risen by 20% since 1999, with the average wage now standing at IDR2,412,000 (US$219) per month. These higher-income earners make up about 30% of the total workforce.
Food consumption is forecast to be US$65.55bn in 2010, rising to an expected US$97.96bn by 2014, an increase of 47.2%. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, which is still developing, will achieve even more substantial growth – BMI forecasts sales to rise by 57.7% to US$10.44bn by 2014.
Other retail sub-sectors forecast to show healthy growth over the period include automotives, in which BMI expects sales to increase by 86.5%, from US$11.32bn in 2010 to US$21.11bn by 2014. Over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to grow by just over 62%, from US$1.47bn in 2010 to US$2.38bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are also predicted to rise about 55%, from US$6.96bn in 2010 to US$10.82bn by the end of the forecast period in 2014.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast to reach US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, with an annual average of 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Indonesia’s forecast market share of 4.0% in 2010 is expected to be the same in 2014.
The Q410 BMI Indonesia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from IDR1.24trn (US$120.02bn) in 2010 to IDR2.09trn (US$201.82bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, the world’s fourth-largest population (which is growing), rising per-capita incomes and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the substantial growth forecast in Indonesian retail sales.
Indonesia’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$675.57bn in 2010 and BMI predicts average annual GDP growth of 5.7% through to 2014. With the population forecast to increase from 232.5mn in 2010 to 244.7mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to grow 63% by the end of the period, reaching US$4,732. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,450 in 2010 to US$2,183 in 2014.
Tourism plays a large part in the health of the Indonesian retail industry, with Bali – the jewel in the country’s tourism crown – generating 30% of national tourist revenue, an estimated US$3bn a year. According to government data, salaries of employees in the formal sector have risen by 20% since 1999, with the average wage now standing at IDR2,412,000 (US$219) per month. These higher-income earners make up about 30% of the total workforce.
Food consumption is forecast to be US$65.55bn in 2010, rising to an expected US$97.96bn by 2014, an increase of 47.2%. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, which is still developing, will achieve even more substantial growth – BMI forecasts sales to rise by 57.7% to US$10.44bn by 2014.
Other retail sub-sectors forecast to show healthy growth over the period include automotives, in which BMI expects sales to increase by 86.5%, from US$11.32bn in 2010 to US$21.11bn by 2014. Over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to grow by just over 62%, from US$1.47bn in 2010 to US$2.38bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are also predicted to rise about 55%, from US$6.96bn in 2010 to US$10.82bn by the end of the forecast period in 2014.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast to reach US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, with an annual average of 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Indonesia’s forecast market share of 4.0% in 2010 is expected to be the same in 2014.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Indonesia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Indonesia’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Indonesia Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook
Table: Asia Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn)
Table: Asia Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014
Mass Grocery Retail
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Indonesia’s MGR Sector – Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Indonesia’s MGR Sector – Sales By Format (IDRbn)
Table: Structure Of Indonesia’s MGR Sector – Sales By Format (US$mn)
Table: Average Annual Sales By Format, 2008
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Average Annual Sales by Format - 2008
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Indonesia Consumer Electronics SWOT
Indonesia Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: Computer Spending By Sector, Estimate
Table: Computers – Sales, 2007-2014
Audio/Video
Table: AV – Demand, 2007-2014
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Telephone Industry Sales, 2007-2014
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014
Industry Developments
Automotive
Indonesia Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources Skip to top