Poland Food and Drink Report Q3 2010
In BMI’s new emerging Europe Business Environment Ratings (BER) matrix for Q310, Poland rose to third place in the regional matrix, up by one place in relation to the previous quarter and up from sixth in Q409. While Poland’s overall score had over the past few quarters been negatively impacted by a slowdown in the eurozone, given that Poland is an important agricultural producer, the return of economic growth now reflects positively on its composite score. In the longer-term, low urbanisation rates and vast population numbers will continue to represent a major draw for investors, although the popularity of private labels and discount mass grocery retail (MGR) outlets has been growing. In fact, according to Nielsen, the sales of private label foodstuffs posted 19.4% value growth in Poland in 2009. Nevertheless, through to 2014, we forecast a 12.03% increase in the value of food consumption in Poland, from the calculated PLN95.3bn (US$31.0bn) reached in 2009, with growth almost flat on the previous year. We expect the value of food consumption in the country to increase by 2.12% year-o-year (y-o-y) in the current year, with the subsequent years to post slightly higher annual increases. Local MGR players are aiming to exploit the return of economic confidence, with Eko Holding planning to raise investment funds through the stock exchange listing, which will be used for acquisitions of retail and wholesale companies, and for modernising of existing and opening of new stores. Similarly, leading Polish pasta producer Makarony Polskie unveiled a two-pronged (organic and non-organic) three-year growth strategy. We also see the firm growing the proportional contribution of private label goods to consolidated sales, in line with the wider trend.
Other companies are targeting more niche markets. For example, in February 2010, PepsiCo announced its intention to triple headline annual sales revenues from healthy drinks and snacks to about US$30bn by 2020. Strengthening health-consciousness across the country is figuring increasingly prominently in PepsiCo’s product development initiatives. Health-consciousness is expected to continue taking on greater importance in defining preferences and in turn new product development over the next decade. PepsiCo’s bold plan to triple sales of healthy drinks and snacks underlines this.
However, some industry sectors are expected to remain more challenging than others. For example, despite the anticipated economic outperformance once more in 2010, Poland’s beer industry is expected to remain relatively weak. The 13.6% excise duty hike introduced in March 2009 continues to significantly erode value and volume sales. Although the robustness of Poland’s consumer market played a significant role in the GDP expansion in 2009 and somewhat insulated the beer industry from the economic shockwaves experienced by most of emerging Europe, headline beer volume sales are estimated to have weakened by 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009. In fact, Heineken-owned Polish brewer Grupa Zywiec reported value and volume sales decline of 2.4% and 6.0% y-o-y respectively.
Other companies are targeting more niche markets. For example, in February 2010, PepsiCo announced its intention to triple headline annual sales revenues from healthy drinks and snacks to about US$30bn by 2020. Strengthening health-consciousness across the country is figuring increasingly prominently in PepsiCo’s product development initiatives. Health-consciousness is expected to continue taking on greater importance in defining preferences and in turn new product development over the next decade. PepsiCo’s bold plan to triple sales of healthy drinks and snacks underlines this.
However, some industry sectors are expected to remain more challenging than others. For example, despite the anticipated economic outperformance once more in 2010, Poland’s beer industry is expected to remain relatively weak. The 13.6% excise duty hike introduced in March 2009 continues to significantly erode value and volume sales. Although the robustness of Poland’s consumer market played a significant role in the GDP expansion in 2009 and somewhat insulated the beer industry from the economic shockwaves experienced by most of emerging Europe, headline beer volume sales are estimated to have weakened by 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009. In fact, Heineken-owned Polish brewer Grupa Zywiec reported value and volume sales decline of 2.4% and 6.0% y-o-y respectively.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Poland Food Industry SWOT
Poland Drink Industry SWOT
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
CEE Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Emerging Europe Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2010
Poland’s Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland – Economic Activity
Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data And Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Trade
Table: Poland Food, Drink And Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Confectionery
Canned Food
Frozen And Chilled Food
Trade
Agriculture
Meat Processing Industry
Dairy Industry
Organic Farming
Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales Indicators – Historical Data And Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales Indicators – Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Poland Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Poland Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table Poland Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value
Table: Poland Average Annual Value Of Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2009
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Poland's MGR Sector (2009)
Table 5: Key Players – Poland's Food & Drink Sector 2009 estimates
Company Analysis
Food
Nestlé Polska
Agros Nova
Danone Polska
Makarony Polskie
Drink
Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC)
Grupa Zywiec (Heineken)
Carlsberg Polska
SABMiller
Kofola-Hoop (Kofola Group)
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Polska
Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins)
Tesco Polska
Appendix
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market & Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Food & Drink Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing Skip to top