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We remain broadly optimistic in our outlook for the Central American consumer (covering the markets of Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador), despite the downside risks posed by the global economic uncertaintly and the increased security risks in parts of the region. Further development of organised retail will allow for a degree of premiumisation to take place, with discounters expected to outperform.
Headline Industry Data (regional averages)
2012 per capita food consumption (US$) = +5.0%; forecast to 2016 = +26.9%
2012 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +6.3%; forecast to 2016 = +35.4%
2012 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.6% ; forecast to 2016 = +31.4%
2012 MGR sales (US$) = +5.9%; forecast to 2016 = +33.6%
Key Company Trends
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags in El Salvador: In July 2012, US beverage company The Coca-Cola Company successfully trialled biodegradable bottle-shaped plastic bags for its flagship brand Coke in El Salvador and subsequently in neighbouring countries, according to Beverage Daily. Street vendors had been selling the drink in plastic bags as consumers didn’t want to pay extra for the returnable glass bottle. Coca-Cola designed the new bags in the contour bottle shape to recover its brand image and save consumers money.
Costa Rica Starts Exports of Milk to Venezuela: In a move signalling the return to strength of the Costa Rican dairy industry, exports of milk to Venezuela were shipped in June 2012. The Dos Pinos Cooperative of Milk Producers is expecting to export 240 containers of UHT milk, worth some US$5mn, with further expansion of volumes likely to occur given rising demand in Venezuela.
Key Risks To Outlook
Multifold Risks: In addition to violence and the overreliance on the US for remittances and demand for exports, Central American countries also remain at risk due to the factors such as the pervasive nature of corruption, a function of the region’s weak institutional capacity, combined with massive income inequality and a broader culture of clientelism. Poor and uneven economic development will keep demand for redistributive policies strong, and this will continue to clash with what in many cases is much-needed fiscal retrenchment. A final factor that will continue to blight Central America – exacerbating the aforementioned challenges – is natural disasters, including flooding, drought, earthquakes and in some cases volcanoes. Add to this a weak fiscal and institutional framework to deal with any fallout, and we expect natural disasters to continue derailing broader developmental goals.
We remain broadly optimistic in our outlook for the Central American consumer (covering the markets of Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador), despite the downside risks posed by the global economic uncertaintly and the increased security risks in parts of the region. Further development of organised retail will allow for a degree of premiumisation to take place, with discounters expected to outperform.
Headline Industry Data (regional averages)
2012 per capita food consumption (US$) = +5.0%; forecast to 2016 = +26.9%
2012 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +6.3%; forecast to 2016 = +35.4%
2012 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.6% ; forecast to 2016 = +31.4%
2012 MGR sales (US$) = +5.9%; forecast to 2016 = +33.6%
Key Company Trends
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags in El Salvador: In July 2012, US beverage company The Coca-Cola Company successfully trialled biodegradable bottle-shaped plastic bags for its flagship brand Coke in El Salvador and subsequently in neighbouring countries, according to Beverage Daily. Street vendors had been selling the drink in plastic bags as consumers didn’t want to pay extra for the returnable glass bottle. Coca-Cola designed the new bags in the contour bottle shape to recover its brand image and save consumers money.
Costa Rica Starts Exports of Milk to Venezuela: In a move signalling the return to strength of the Costa Rican dairy industry, exports of milk to Venezuela were shipped in June 2012. The Dos Pinos Cooperative of Milk Producers is expecting to export 240 containers of UHT milk, worth some US$5mn, with further expansion of volumes likely to occur given rising demand in Venezuela.
Key Risks To Outlook
Multifold Risks: In addition to violence and the overreliance on the US for remittances and demand for exports, Central American countries also remain at risk due to the factors such as the pervasive nature of corruption, a function of the region’s weak institutional capacity, combined with massive income inequality and a broader culture of clientelism. Poor and uneven economic development will keep demand for redistributive policies strong, and this will continue to clash with what in many cases is much-needed fiscal retrenchment. A final factor that will continue to blight Central America – exacerbating the aforementioned challenges – is natural disasters, including flooding, drought, earthquakes and in some cases volcanoes. Add to this a weak fiscal and institutional framework to deal with any fallout, and we expect natural disasters to continue derailing broader developmental goals.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Central America Food Industry SWOT
Central America Drink Industry SWOT
Central America Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q412 (out of 10)
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q412
Central America Risk/Reward Ratings
Regional Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Guatemala – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: El Salvador – Confectionery, 2009-2016
Meat
Table: El Salvador – Meat, 2009-2016
Jams & Jellies
Table: El Salvador – Jams & Jellies, 2009-2016
Pasta
Table: El Salvador – Pasta, 2009-2016
Prepared Fish
Table: El Salvador – Fish, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Fish, 2009-2016
Oils & Fats
Table: Costa Rica – Soya Bean Oil, 2009-2016
Table: Guatemala – Soya Bean Oil, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Margarine, 2009-2016
Dairy
Table: El Salvador – Dairy, 2009-2016
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Guatemala – Coffee, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Coffee, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Coffee, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Coffee, 2009-2016
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Guatemala – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: Guatemala – Soft Drink Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Soft Drink Sales, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %
Table: Guatemala – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: Guatemala – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Florida Ice And Farm Enters Dairy Sector
Rising Interest In Ready-to-Eat Food
Pollo Tropical Launches First Franchised Restaurant In Costa Rica
Costa Rican Growers Must Adhere To New US Food Safety Law
Walmart Giving Producers A Hand
Market Overview
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags in El Salvador
Costa Rican Farmers Setting Up Coffee Micro-Processing Plants
Starbucks Opens First Costa Rican Outlet
Honduras Struggles To Process Coffee Harvest
Regional Consolidation In Soft Drinks
Market Overview
Hot Drinks
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Walmart Launches New Discount Format In El Salvador
Walmart Investing In Expansion
Colombian Retailer Olimpica Moves Into Central America
Market Overview
Competitve Landscape
Table: Key Players In Central America’s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Guatemala’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Key Players In El Salvador’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Key Players In Honduras’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Profiles
Food
Diana Food
Drink
Central America Beverage Corporation (CABCORP)
SABMiller
Mass Grocery Retail
Walmart Centroamerica
Country Snapshot
Guatemala
Table: Guatemala’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Guatemala’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Guatemala’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Guatemala’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Costa Rica
Table: Costa Rica’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Costa Rica’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Costa Rica’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Costa Rica’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
El Salvador
Table: El Salvador’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: El Salvador’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: El Salvador’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: El Salvador’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Honduras
Table: Honduras’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Honduras’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Honduras’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Honduras’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
SWOT Analysis
Central America Food Industry SWOT
Central America Drink Industry SWOT
Central America Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q412 (out of 10)
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q412
Central America Risk/Reward Ratings
Regional Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Guatemala – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Food Consumption, 2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: El Salvador – Confectionery, 2009-2016
Meat
Table: El Salvador – Meat, 2009-2016
Jams & Jellies
Table: El Salvador – Jams & Jellies, 2009-2016
Pasta
Table: El Salvador – Pasta, 2009-2016
Prepared Fish
Table: El Salvador – Fish, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Fish, 2009-2016
Oils & Fats
Table: Costa Rica – Soya Bean Oil, 2009-2016
Table: Guatemala – Soya Bean Oil, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Margarine, 2009-2016
Dairy
Table: El Salvador – Dairy, 2009-2016
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Guatemala – Coffee, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Coffee, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Coffee, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Coffee, 2009-2016
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Guatemala – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: Guatemala – Soft Drink Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Soft Drink Sales, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %
Table: Guatemala – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: Guatemala – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Costa Rica – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: El Salvador – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Honduras – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Florida Ice And Farm Enters Dairy Sector
Rising Interest In Ready-to-Eat Food
Pollo Tropical Launches First Franchised Restaurant In Costa Rica
Costa Rican Growers Must Adhere To New US Food Safety Law
Walmart Giving Producers A Hand
Market Overview
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags in El Salvador
Costa Rican Farmers Setting Up Coffee Micro-Processing Plants
Starbucks Opens First Costa Rican Outlet
Honduras Struggles To Process Coffee Harvest
Regional Consolidation In Soft Drinks
Market Overview
Hot Drinks
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Walmart Launches New Discount Format In El Salvador
Walmart Investing In Expansion
Colombian Retailer Olimpica Moves Into Central America
Market Overview
Competitve Landscape
Table: Key Players In Central America’s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Guatemala’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Key Players In El Salvador’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Key Players In Honduras’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Profiles
Food
Diana Food
Drink
Central America Beverage Corporation (CABCORP)
SABMiller
Mass Grocery Retail
Walmart Centroamerica
Country Snapshot
Guatemala
Table: Guatemala’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Guatemala’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Guatemala’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Guatemala’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Costa Rica
Table: Costa Rica’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Costa Rica’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Costa Rica’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Costa Rica’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
El Salvador
Table: El Salvador’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: El Salvador’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: El Salvador’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: El Salvador’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Honduras
Table: Honduras’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Honduras’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Honduras’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Honduras’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing