Belarus Food and Drink Report Q4 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The consumer outlook for Belarus has worsened over the past months, with the trend of premiumisation definitely put on hold. Inflation hit 48.4% in July 2011, a particularly striking fact in the highly managed Belarusian economy, where food prices are mandated by law and thus kept artificially low. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the black market is expanding quickly, with the pending free floating of the rouble also to have a further devaluating effect on the currency.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
Belarus Looking to Increase Its Role in the Sugar Processing Market – In August 2011, BelTA reported that an unnamed Polish company is viewed as a potential partner in the proposed sugar refinery project. The mill, which is to be built in Mogilev Oblast, would have the capacity to process more than 1mn tonnes of sugar beet. The companies engaged in the industry, which is encouraged to increase investment, product range (with a focus on more packaged sugar and products such as jams) and efficiency, and also to diversify its export markets. Presently, most of the Belarus sugar is exported to Russia, which is aiming to improve its domestic capacities for sugar beet processing.
Key Risks To Outlook
Free-Floating Rouble to Increase Pressure on Households – The realisation that the government is unable to keep the exchange rate fixed has led to the announcement that the rouble will be allowed to float, as of mid-September. When this happens, we expect its further devaluation, which will increase import prices and inflation. Therefore, we expect discretionary spending to remain constrained in the near term.
Inflation and Economic Instability to Increase Potential for Social Unrest – As a result of escalating inflation and the deterioration in economic stability, we expect a further erosion of social stability and support for the Belarusian regime. We stress that the potential for such resistance to mount has risen sharply since the contested December 2010 elections and will continue to rise as domestic economic conditions sour further.
The consumer outlook for Belarus has worsened over the past months, with the trend of premiumisation definitely put on hold. Inflation hit 48.4% in July 2011, a particularly striking fact in the highly managed Belarusian economy, where food prices are mandated by law and thus kept artificially low. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the black market is expanding quickly, with the pending free floating of the rouble also to have a further devaluating effect on the currency.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2011 food consumption = +11.46%; forecast to 2015 = +80.20%
- 2011 per capita food consumption = +11.94%; forecast to 2015 = +84.03%
- 2011 alcoholic drinks sales = +10.15%; forecast to 2015 = +73.35%
- 2011 per capita alcoholic drinks sales = +10.62%; forecast to 2015 = +77.04%
Belarus Looking to Increase Its Role in the Sugar Processing Market – In August 2011, BelTA reported that an unnamed Polish company is viewed as a potential partner in the proposed sugar refinery project. The mill, which is to be built in Mogilev Oblast, would have the capacity to process more than 1mn tonnes of sugar beet. The companies engaged in the industry, which is encouraged to increase investment, product range (with a focus on more packaged sugar and products such as jams) and efficiency, and also to diversify its export markets. Presently, most of the Belarus sugar is exported to Russia, which is aiming to improve its domestic capacities for sugar beet processing.
Key Risks To Outlook
Free-Floating Rouble to Increase Pressure on Households – The realisation that the government is unable to keep the exchange rate fixed has led to the announcement that the rouble will be allowed to float, as of mid-September. When this happens, we expect its further devaluation, which will increase import prices and inflation. Therefore, we expect discretionary spending to remain constrained in the near term.
Inflation and Economic Instability to Increase Potential for Social Unrest – As a result of escalating inflation and the deterioration in economic stability, we expect a further erosion of social stability and support for the Belarusian regime. We stress that the potential for such resistance to mount has risen sharply since the contested December 2010 elections and will continue to rise as domestic economic conditions sour further.
Contents
BMI Industry ViewSWOT Analysis
Belarus Food Industry SWOT
Belarus Drink Industry SWOT
Belarus Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
BMI Core Views
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Belarus – Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Belarus Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Chocolate
Canned And Processed Foods
Table: Meat
Table: Jams And Jellies
Pasta
Table: Pasta
Baked Products
Table: Biscuits
Dairy
Dairy
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcohol
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Table: Coffee And Tea
Mass Grocery Retail
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Belarusian food processing industries are attracting investment…
…While the country aims to expand its export potential
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Processing
Agriculture
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Multinationals continuing to invest in Belarus
Local firms look to increase presence in soft drinks market…
… And also to boost exports
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Leading Brewers
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
MGR operating environment remains challenging…
…Although the market had been of interest in recent years
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Belarus' Food Sector (2010)
Table: Key Players In Belarus' Drink Sector (2010)
Table: Key Players in Belarus' Mass Grocery Retail Industry (2010)
Company Analysis
Food
Bellakt
Kraft Foods
Drink
Krinitsa
PepsiCo
Mass Grocery Retail
Sedmoi Kontinent
Vester
BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Returns
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weightings
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing Skip to top