United States Real Estate Report Q3 2011

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Key Opportunities/Drivers

• After years of lacklustre performance, the US commercial property market sector is showing signs of reaching the bottom of the cycle, allowing it to begin a slow recovery. Signs of improvement in the office, industrial and retail sub-sectors are already apparent, in terms of vacancy rates and net absorption. However, this has yet to translate into better rental rates.
• The economy is broadly improving, but with deep concerns in some areas (See Risks To Outlook, below). We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% for 2011.
• On an industry basis, demand will be driven by activity in the technology industry. Other contributing industries will be business services, energy and transport. Improved business confidence is vital to a sustained recovery in the real estate market.
• On the supply side, the lack of speculative construction since the downturn is tightening the market. As the commercial market improves, after reaching its expected turning point during 2011, demand will begin to assert itself over available supply, presenting opportunities for new developments.

Key Risks To Outlook

• If the economic recovery stalls so will the real estate market.
• Impediments to economic recovery include high energy and commodity prices; unemployment; the level of debt, both in the US and in Europe; and the US budget deficit.
• In contrast to the picture in commercial property, the residential property market not only shows no signs of recovery, but is still worsening. Prices have been falling consistently, with house prices experiencing their steepest decline for three years in Q111.

Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
US Real Estate/Construction SWOT
US Economic SWOT
US Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Real Estate Market Analysis
  Table: The US Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, US$)
  Table: The US Real Estate Market – Net Yield, 2010 And 2011 (%)
  Table: The US Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid 2010
  Table: The US Real Estate Market – Indicated Vacancy, Mid-2010 (m2 unless stated)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
  Table: The US Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, US$)
  Table: The US Real Estate Market – Forecast Yield, 2008-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
  Table: US Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
  Table: US Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: United States – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
  Table: Americas Business Environment Ratings
US RECBER
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Developed States
  Table: Design And Construction Rating
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
  Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
US Business Environment
  Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
  Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
  Table: Labour Force Quality
  Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
  Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Bechtel
Fluor Corporation
KBR
Pulte Homes (Including Centex Homes)
Turner Construction Company
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
  Table: Design And Construction Phase
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
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