Poland Real Estate Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The continuing good health of the commercial property sector is driven by the sustained growth of the Polish economy, which in turn is fuelled by improvements in the unemployment rate and growing consumer confidence. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade with EU countries are other factors. Key factors affecting the real estate industry include:
The growth of retail sales, industrial output and the business services sector is leading to increasing demand for commercial space – which will continue at least throughout 2012. Across the board, we expect much of the existing available commercial space to be taken up through 2011 and onwards, as construction begins on more developments across the land.
The building of new infrastructure – including roads, rail and the Warsaw metro line – across the country has opened up viable new areas for all sectors of the property market.
Poland’s office real estate sector currently has one of the best prospects in the world, according to research by Jones Lang LaSalle. There is sustained demand, including from service providers who are already established or are looking at expansion. In the retail property sector, growth is fuelled by high retail sales. As consumer confidence is on the rise, so is consumer spending. In April 2011, retail sales (annualised for January-April) increased by 9.5% year-on-year. Poland’s industrial property sector is experiencing a pick-up in development activity, driven by increasing retail sales and industrial production.
Increasing world energy and commodity prices threaten to put further pressure on prices and could possibly lead to a reining in of the economy by the central bank – the National Bank of Poland (NBP) – if it decides to tighten interest rates again. Further fiscal turmoil in the eurozone also threatens economic conditions and trade in the region, with subsequent fall-out for the Polish economy.
The continuing good health of the commercial property sector is driven by the sustained growth of the Polish economy, which in turn is fuelled by improvements in the unemployment rate and growing consumer confidence. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade with EU countries are other factors. Key factors affecting the real estate industry include:
The growth of retail sales, industrial output and the business services sector is leading to increasing demand for commercial space – which will continue at least throughout 2012. Across the board, we expect much of the existing available commercial space to be taken up through 2011 and onwards, as construction begins on more developments across the land.
The building of new infrastructure – including roads, rail and the Warsaw metro line – across the country has opened up viable new areas for all sectors of the property market.
Poland’s office real estate sector currently has one of the best prospects in the world, according to research by Jones Lang LaSalle. There is sustained demand, including from service providers who are already established or are looking at expansion. In the retail property sector, growth is fuelled by high retail sales. As consumer confidence is on the rise, so is consumer spending. In April 2011, retail sales (annualised for January-April) increased by 9.5% year-on-year. Poland’s industrial property sector is experiencing a pick-up in development activity, driven by increasing retail sales and industrial production.
Increasing world energy and commodity prices threaten to put further pressure on prices and could possibly lead to a reining in of the economy by the central bank – the National Bank of Poland (NBP) – if it decides to tighten interest rates again. Further fiscal turmoil in the eurozone also threatens economic conditions and trade in the region, with subsequent fall-out for the Polish economy.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Poland Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Market Analysis
Table: Poland’s Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, EUR)
Table: Poland’s Real Estate Market – Net Yields, 2010 And 2011 (%)
Table: Poland’s Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2010
Table: Poland’s Real Estate Market – Available And Vacant Space, Mid-2010 (m2)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Poland’s Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, EUR)
Table: Poland’s Real Estate Market – Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
Table: Poland Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Europe Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Poland’s RECBER
Poland’s Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Emerging Europe - Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Atlas Estates
Plaza Centers NV
TriGranit
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
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