Japan Real Estate Report Q2 2014

Date: January 29, 2014
Pages: 75
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: J29D86853EBEN
Leaflet:

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Japan's commercial real estate sector remains a regional outperformer, bolstered by substantial foreign capital inflows and ultra-loose monetary policy. However, with consumer spending levels and economic growth starting to show signs of retreating, we caution that the sector is likely to experience a more moderate growth trend in 2014. 2014 is shaping up to be a more sedate year for Japan's real estate market as the sector reacts to a more conservative business environment. The rapid economic growth witnessed in H113 has already started to slow with Q313 GDP growth estimated at 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), compared with the 3.5% q-o-q pace recorded in Q213.

Consumer spending growth is also expected to trend below the high levels witnessed in 2013 the cost of food and energy rises, eroding household incomes. Indeed, we expect the pace of growth in private consumption to continue in its downward trajectory, and even fall into contraction in Q214, given that the consumption tax hike to 8% from the current 5% is set to be implemented in April 2014.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Office
  Table: Forecast Office Rents (JPY per m2 per month), 2013-2014
  Table: Forecast Net Office Yields, 2011-2018, %
Retail
  Table: Forecast Retail Rents (JPY per m2 per month) 2013
  Table: Forecast Retail Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
Industrial
  Table: Forecast Industrial Rental Rates (JPY per m2 per month) 2013-2014
  Table: Forecast Industrial Net Yield, 2008-2017 (%)
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
  Table: Japan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012 - 2017
  Table: Japan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2018 - 2023
Short-Term Boost Comes At Long-Term Expense
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Long-Term Benefits To Tourism Largely Uncertain
Construction Realities Unlikely To Mimic Stock Gains
Costs To Aggravate Risky Fiscal Situation
Infrastructure Potentially Underutilised Given Poor Demographics
Raising Gaming, Immigration, Education And Nuclear Issues
  Table: Japan - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Japan - Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Tokyo
Yokohama
Osaka
Office
  Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (JPY/per m2/month)
  Table: Net Yield, 2011-2013 (%)
  Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - H212
Retail
  Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (JPY/per m2/month)
  Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
  Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212
Industrial
  Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (JPY/per m2/month)
  Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
  Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212
Competitive Landscape
Office
Retail
Industrial
Construction
REITs
Company Profile
Kajima Corporation
Kumagai Gumi
Obayashi Corporation
Shimizu Corporation
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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