Germany Real Estate Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Recent developments confirm that the generally benign environment foreseen by BMI’s in-country sources in late December 2010 remains intact. A strong rebound in investment, a surge in business for Germany’s exporters and improving consumer confidence are all good news.
This comes after a more challenging environment in 2009-2010, when the various protagonists in Germany’s commercial real estate sector managed to keep markets in equilibrium across sub-sectors and in each of the cities – Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin and Frankfurt – for which we gathered data. Although there was vacant space, the amounts were neither excessive nor increasing. Yields are also neither excessive nor increasing. Interestingly, there has been a clear upturn in lending by Germany’s Pfandbrief banks, which are an important source of funding, and not just for the commercial Real Estate sector.
Our in-country sources have – fairly, in our view – been cautiously optimistic about 2012. They are looking for no change in office rents in Berlin and Frankfurt; however, rents are expected to rise by 2-3% in Munich and by a little more in Dusseldorf. For retail rents, there should be small increases of 2-3% in Dusseldorf and Frankfurt, with slightly higher rises (perhaps 6% or so) in Munich and Berlin. Our sources have envisaged that industrial rents will remain essentially flat in 2012 – although they may grow by 5% or so in Berlin.
Recent developments confirm that the generally benign environment foreseen by BMI’s in-country sources in late December 2010 remains intact. A strong rebound in investment, a surge in business for Germany’s exporters and improving consumer confidence are all good news.
This comes after a more challenging environment in 2009-2010, when the various protagonists in Germany’s commercial real estate sector managed to keep markets in equilibrium across sub-sectors and in each of the cities – Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin and Frankfurt – for which we gathered data. Although there was vacant space, the amounts were neither excessive nor increasing. Yields are also neither excessive nor increasing. Interestingly, there has been a clear upturn in lending by Germany’s Pfandbrief banks, which are an important source of funding, and not just for the commercial Real Estate sector.
Our in-country sources have – fairly, in our view – been cautiously optimistic about 2012. They are looking for no change in office rents in Berlin and Frankfurt; however, rents are expected to rise by 2-3% in Munich and by a little more in Dusseldorf. For retail rents, there should be small increases of 2-3% in Dusseldorf and Frankfurt, with slightly higher rises (perhaps 6% or so) in Munich and Berlin. Our sources have envisaged that industrial rents will remain essentially flat in 2012 – although they may grow by 5% or so in Berlin.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Germany Real Estate/ Construction Industry SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Table: Historic Rents – 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, EUR)
Table: Net Yields, 2010 And 2011 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2010
Table: Available And Vacant Space, Mid-2010 (m2)
Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
Table: Real Estate Markets – Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, EUR)
Table: Forecast Yield, 2008-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Germany – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Europe Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Germany’s RECBER
Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Exports
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Hochtief
Multi Development Germany GmbH
ORCO Property Group Germany
Patrizia Immobilien AG
TAG Immobilien AG
Vivacon AG
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport . 56 Skip to top