Egypt Real Estate Report Q4 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The real estate sector in Egypt is ignoring the unrest and political wrangling under way – except where the sector itself is under scrutiny – and the boom in demand continues. In June 2011, our in-country sources reported that rents were not affected by the troubles and grew, for the most part, in each city and in each sub-sector of the market. Further rent increases are less likely in the second half of 2011 and into 2012, although we may see some – if at a more measured rate – for industrial space. A rise in rents relative to capital values means that yields for retail space have risen since the end of 2010. However, taking the longer-term view, we expect yields will remain stable, or fall slightly, as perceptions of the Egyptian business environment improve.
Egypt’s Ministry of Housing has promised 1mn new affordable homes by 2015 in 22 cities across the country, designed to help meet the needs of a flourishing, expanding, young population. New cities have been created to accommodate the growth. As the need for residential property grows, so too does the need for business and retail space. There have been a few areas of the market where there was plenty of supply but it is likely the temporary slow-down in development put paid to any over-supply risks. Rather, chronic under-supply remains.
Key opportunities in the real estate market:
The real estate sector in Egypt is ignoring the unrest and political wrangling under way – except where the sector itself is under scrutiny – and the boom in demand continues. In June 2011, our in-country sources reported that rents were not affected by the troubles and grew, for the most part, in each city and in each sub-sector of the market. Further rent increases are less likely in the second half of 2011 and into 2012, although we may see some – if at a more measured rate – for industrial space. A rise in rents relative to capital values means that yields for retail space have risen since the end of 2010. However, taking the longer-term view, we expect yields will remain stable, or fall slightly, as perceptions of the Egyptian business environment improve.
Egypt’s Ministry of Housing has promised 1mn new affordable homes by 2015 in 22 cities across the country, designed to help meet the needs of a flourishing, expanding, young population. New cities have been created to accommodate the growth. As the need for residential property grows, so too does the need for business and retail space. There have been a few areas of the market where there was plenty of supply but it is likely the temporary slow-down in development put paid to any over-supply risks. Rather, chronic under-supply remains.
Key opportunities in the real estate market:
- Delayed projects open up even more opportunity for developers to meet the needs of a growing population in a healthy economy.
- Viable support from the World Bank in the form of funding to one developer, a US$50mn equity investment in Orascom Construction Industries (OCI), indicates the attractiveness of the country to other foreign investors. The investment itself should create around 2,500 jobs across the region, which in turn will help generate internal growth and spur investment.
- We are seeing projects under way and tourism picking up again. Egyptian Resorts Company (ERC), which develops mega communities in the country, reported 40-50% capacity by July 2011, up from just 1-5% following the January revolution.
Key risks to the real estate market: - The legal contestation of land contracts runs the risk of delaying projects, criminal charges against the owners of construction firms and the continued tarnishing of the industry’s reputation. Egyptian courts have finally removed a presidential decree that allowed state bodies to sell land and pocket the proceeds, according to Trade Arabia in June 2011.
- For developers, their land is under threat of being seized back by the new government. The Egyptian Housing Ministry is reported in Reuters to be withdrawing an unused 210-feddan (217.9-acre) plot of land from Palm Hills Development. Al-Mal reported that Palm Hills was awarded the land after a closed bid in May 2007 at EGP812 per metre (m).
- Egypt’s commercial real estate sector is now returning to stability after the turmoil at the beginning of 2011 and, although occupancy rates are rising, the speed with which they recover or are affected by future issues may cause companies to struggle to sell hotel rooms and properties.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Egypt Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Egypt Economic SWOT
Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Real Estate Market Analysis
Table: Egypt’s Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2010 And 2011 (per m2/month, US$)
Table: Egypt’s Real Estate Market – Net Yields, 2011 And 2012 (%)
Table: Egypt’s Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
Table: Egypt’s Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2011 And 2012 (per m?/month, US$)
Table: Forecast Yield, 2008-2015 (%)
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015
Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Egypt – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Business Environment
Egypt’s Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Middle East and Africa – Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2001-2009
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Egyptian Resorts Company
Nasr City Housing and Development
Orascom Construction Industries
Palm Hills Development
Saudi Egyptian Construction Company (SECON)
SODIC
TMG Holding
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
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