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The Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country, in the context of the struggling domestic and regional economy.
With a focus on the three principal cities of Sarajevo, Trebinje and Zenica, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in commercial real estate, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on an already struggling market.
Our latest data collection, for the first six months of 2012, has revealed an industry-wide contraction in rental rates across all geographies surveyed, continuing the downturn of 2011 and undoing much of the positive growth seen in 2010. The industrial sector has weathered the storm better than its counterparts due, in part, to the increased lease-length cycle, but in the medium term we expect the retail sector in particular to outperform.
Key Points:
The Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country, in the context of the struggling domestic and regional economy.
With a focus on the three principal cities of Sarajevo, Trebinje and Zenica, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in commercial real estate, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on an already struggling market.
Our latest data collection, for the first six months of 2012, has revealed an industry-wide contraction in rental rates across all geographies surveyed, continuing the downturn of 2011 and undoing much of the positive growth seen in 2010. The industrial sector has weathered the storm better than its counterparts due, in part, to the increased lease-length cycle, but in the medium term we expect the retail sector in particular to outperform.
Key Points:
- Despite the lack of timely GDP data, it is becoming increasingly clear that Bosnia's economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly. Data from the industrial and export sectors show a marked weakening in activity during the first half of the year, with any meaningful improvement unlikely by year-end. Providing significant impediments to the recovery are the eurozone debt crisis which is hitting trade, as well as domestic headwinds such as the ongoing political disunity and temporary output suspension in the aluminium and energy industries.
- Bosnia has secured a fresh two-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF, which had previously suspended loans as a result of slow progress on economic reforms and a lengthy spell of political stalemate. Although the SBA has improved short-term fiscal stability, we warn that with confidence intrinsically tied to the bailout programme and given the anaemic pace of reform, investor sentiment could turn sour quickly, should the IMF suspend any outstanding loan tranches over the next two years.
- BiH's construction sector continues to struggle against a headwind of uncertainty. Should the eurozone crisis pass the point of no return, or if Bosnia's coalition government collapses, there is a risk of a much more pronounced downturn in economic activity. Construction industry value is forecast to stand at US$0.92bn in 2012, with average year-on-year growth of just 1.5% expected between 2012 and 2016, reaching value of US$1.1bn.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bosnia & Herzegovina Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT
Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT
Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Market Analysis – Office
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease – H112
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Market Analysis – Retail
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease – H112
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Market Analysis – Industrial
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease – H112
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Forecast Scenarios
Construction And Infrastructure Outlook
Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2016
Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina – Economic Activity
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Bosnia & Herzegovina Real Estate Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Market Orientation
Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
BBI Real Estate
Delta Real Estate Group
GP Put d.d. Sarajevo
STRABAG SE
Vranica d.d. Sarajevo
Demographic Data
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Bosnia & Herzegovina Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT
Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT
Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Market Analysis – Office
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease – H112
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Market Analysis – Retail
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease – H112
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Market Analysis – Industrial
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease – H112
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Forecast Scenarios
Construction And Infrastructure Outlook
Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2016
Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina – Economic Activity
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Bosnia & Herzegovina Real Estate Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Market Orientation
Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
BBI Real Estate
Delta Real Estate Group
GP Put d.d. Sarajevo
STRABAG SE
Vranica d.d. Sarajevo
Demographic Data
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources