Australia Real Estate Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The latest information we have on the real estate sector in Australia has been commentary associated with the results for the major REIT companies in Australia for the six months to December 31 2010 and for Q311 results (the three months to March 31 2011). Commentary from the REIT sector has been more positive than expected. However, the outlook remains cautious.
Commentary from Mirvac in its third quarter result to March 31 2011 indicated that the commercial sector improved. The CBD national office vacancy rate declined steadily from the peak of 8.2 per cent recorded in mid-2010. By March 2011 the vacancy rate was 7.4 per cent, with a further moderate decline expected through to end-2011. Melbourne is the most advanced in the recovery cycle with Sydney following closely, while Brisbane and Perth recorded strong levels of net absorption.
Overall prime CBD office capital values rose 4.8 per cent over the year to March 2011, 5.25 per cent in 2010, with further steady rises expected through 2011 and 2012. The commercial office market has been assisted by a strong recovery in the financial sector in Australia and a reasonable growth in the economy. Transactions in the market have been low.
The retail sector has been more difficult as retail spending has grown at a below-trend pace since mid- 2010. Strong employment growth and a recovery in household balance sheets have been offset by rising interest rates and fragile consumer confidence. While rental growth has accelerated from the trough of 2009 it has been only moderate.
The industrial sector has been hit by a number of major changes in the structure of the manufacturing sector in Australia. Import growth and rising competition between retailers is driving a revolution in better logistics and inventory management in Australia. This resulted in rising demand for modern welllocated facilities. The sharp fall in industrial construction through 2008 and 2009 has therefore resulted in tightening markets and the emergence of pre-lease and speculative development activity in the industrial sector. However the other major change has been the manufacturing sector started to feel the pressure from the strong AUD. This may hit some manufacturing areas and subsequent demand for industrial space.
Our local sources think that we are likely to have a particularly stable period for net yields – across the board – in the coming year or so, albeit with some small fluctuations. The exceptions are the potential for an increasing yield from office space in Perth and retail space in Brisbane, which is forecast to drop slightly by 2012.
The latest information we have on the real estate sector in Australia has been commentary associated with the results for the major REIT companies in Australia for the six months to December 31 2010 and for Q311 results (the three months to March 31 2011). Commentary from the REIT sector has been more positive than expected. However, the outlook remains cautious.
Commentary from Mirvac in its third quarter result to March 31 2011 indicated that the commercial sector improved. The CBD national office vacancy rate declined steadily from the peak of 8.2 per cent recorded in mid-2010. By March 2011 the vacancy rate was 7.4 per cent, with a further moderate decline expected through to end-2011. Melbourne is the most advanced in the recovery cycle with Sydney following closely, while Brisbane and Perth recorded strong levels of net absorption.
Overall prime CBD office capital values rose 4.8 per cent over the year to March 2011, 5.25 per cent in 2010, with further steady rises expected through 2011 and 2012. The commercial office market has been assisted by a strong recovery in the financial sector in Australia and a reasonable growth in the economy. Transactions in the market have been low.
The retail sector has been more difficult as retail spending has grown at a below-trend pace since mid- 2010. Strong employment growth and a recovery in household balance sheets have been offset by rising interest rates and fragile consumer confidence. While rental growth has accelerated from the trough of 2009 it has been only moderate.
The industrial sector has been hit by a number of major changes in the structure of the manufacturing sector in Australia. Import growth and rising competition between retailers is driving a revolution in better logistics and inventory management in Australia. This resulted in rising demand for modern welllocated facilities. The sharp fall in industrial construction through 2008 and 2009 has therefore resulted in tightening markets and the emergence of pre-lease and speculative development activity in the industrial sector. However the other major change has been the manufacturing sector started to feel the pressure from the strong AUD. This may hit some manufacturing areas and subsequent demand for industrial space.
Our local sources think that we are likely to have a particularly stable period for net yields – across the board – in the coming year or so, albeit with some small fluctuations. The exceptions are the potential for an increasing yield from office space in Perth and retail space in Brisbane, which is forecast to drop slightly by 2012.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Australia Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Table: Australia’s Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, US$)
Table: Australia’s Real Estate Market – Net Yields, 2010 And 2011 (%)
Table: Australia’s Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2010
Table: Australia’s Real Estate Market – Available (m2) And Vacant Space (%), Mid-2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
Table: Australia’s Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, US$)
Table: Australia’s Real Estate Market – Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2015 (%)
Australia’s Construction Outlook
Table: Australia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Australia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Australia – Economic Activity
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Australia’s RECBER
Australia’s Business Environment
Business Environment Outlook
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Market Orientation
TABLE: ASIA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2002-2009
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Bilfinger Berger Australia (now known as Valemus)
Bovis Lend Lease (BLL)
Brookfield Multiplex (BM)
Laing O’Rourke
Leighton Holdings
Meriton Group
MIrvac
Stockland Group
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
Sources 65 Skip to top