Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Core Views
The Dutch economy will slide further into recession in the coming quarters but is expected to see a return to positive growth in 2014. With unemployment rising and the fiscal deficit widening, the government will continue to suffer in the polls.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our 2013 real GDP growth estimate to -0.6% from a previous forecast of 0.2%.
Key Risks To Outlook
Should the eurozone sovereign debt crisis take a turn for the worse in the coming quarters, we would expect a more pronounced contraction in GDP.
Core Views
The Dutch economy will slide further into recession in the coming quarters but is expected to see a return to positive growth in 2014. With unemployment rising and the fiscal deficit widening, the government will continue to suffer in the polls.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our 2013 real GDP growth estimate to -0.6% from a previous forecast of 0.2%.
Key Risks To Outlook
Should the eurozone sovereign debt crisis take a turn for the worse in the coming quarters, we would expect a more pronounced contraction in GDP.
Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
CHAPTER 1: POLITICAL OUTLOOK
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Fiscal Consolidation Plan Going Awry
The Dutch government - a notable fiscal hawk within the eurozone - is expected to miss its fiscal deficit target this year, with additional
austerity pushed back to 2014. Given the Dutch government's presidency of the Eurogroup, a slowing pace of fiscal consolidation at
home would make it increasingly difficult to demand further austerity from other member states.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Property Market Will Drag Down Consumption In 2013
The Dutch economy is sliding further into recession and is likely to post a full-year of economic contraction in 2013 as a result of rising
unemployment and falling property prices eating into consumer spending. We now forecast real GDP to contract by 0.6% this year,
having previously projected positive growth of 0.2%.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3: BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
CHAPTER 4: KEY SECTORS
Freight Transport
TABLE: ROAD FREIGHT, 2010-2017
TABLE: INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT, 2010-2017
TABLE: RAIL FREIGHT, 2010-2017
TABLE: AIR FREIGHT, 2010-2017
Pharmaceuticals
TABLE: GENERICS DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: PRESCRIPTION DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: PATENTED DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: OVER-THE-COUNTER (OTC) MEDICINE MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: FOOD & DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
CHAPTER 5: BMI GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
Global Outlook
Past The Major Obstacles To Recovery
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
CHAPTER 1: POLITICAL OUTLOOK
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Fiscal Consolidation Plan Going Awry
The Dutch government - a notable fiscal hawk within the eurozone - is expected to miss its fiscal deficit target this year, with additional
austerity pushed back to 2014. Given the Dutch government's presidency of the Eurogroup, a slowing pace of fiscal consolidation at
home would make it increasingly difficult to demand further austerity from other member states.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Property Market Will Drag Down Consumption In 2013
The Dutch economy is sliding further into recession and is likely to post a full-year of economic contraction in 2013 as a result of rising
unemployment and falling property prices eating into consumer spending. We now forecast real GDP to contract by 0.6% this year,
having previously projected positive growth of 0.2%.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3: BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
CHAPTER 4: KEY SECTORS
Freight Transport
TABLE: ROAD FREIGHT, 2010-2017
TABLE: INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT, 2010-2017
TABLE: RAIL FREIGHT, 2010-2017
TABLE: AIR FREIGHT, 2010-2017
Pharmaceuticals
TABLE: GENERICS DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: PRESCRIPTION DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: PATENTED DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: OVER-THE-COUNTER (OTC) MEDICINE MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: FOOD & DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
CHAPTER 5: BMI GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
Global Outlook
Past The Major Obstacles To Recovery
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS