Ukraine Commercial Banking Report Q4 2013

Date: October 16, 2013
Pages: 74
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: UE8D9A5ADF1EN
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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Thai port and shipping growth will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. According to our forecasts in 2013 GDP will grow by 4.0%, while foreign trade will expand by a slightly higher 5.4%.

Net Exports Likely To Be A Drag On Growth

Slower economic growth in China, and increasingly close economic links between China and Thailand, are having a significant impact on our outlook. In recent months we have seen quite sharp fluctuations in manufacturing production and exports, but we believe there is danger they may be entering an extended period of stagnant growth linked to lower demand from China in H213. On the plus side, we expect private consumption to remain relatively resilient for the moment (although it could be affected further down the road by any job losses in the export sector). The reappearance of tensions between the ruling Puea Thai Party (PTP) which is pushing ahead with controversial constitutional reforms and a possibly amnesty law on a piecemeal basis, and the opposition-aligned urban elites, could have a negative impact on investor confidence. But for the moment gross fixed capital formation also looks strong. Public spending is expansive as the government boosts its infrastructure programme and maintains rice subsidies. While contributing to growth now, an expanding fiscal deficit will eventually need to be dealt with. All this leads us to maintain our 2013 GDP growth prediction of 4.0% (which remains below the Bloomberg consensus figure of 4.7%). In 2014 we project GDP growth of 4.5%.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
The Port Of Laem Chabang Throughput
The Port Of Bangkok Throughput
  Table: Major Port Data
  Table: Trade Overview
  Table: Key Trade Indicators
  Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, Us$Mn
  Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, Us$Mn
Market Overview
Thailand Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Thailand Company Profile
Regional Container Lines (RCL)
Precious Shipping PCL (PSL)
Shipping - Global Industry View
Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
  Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
  Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
  Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
  Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
  Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company
Macroeconomic Forecasts
  Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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