Turkey Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Contents
Executive SummaryTable: Levels (TRYbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At April 2011
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
Table: Projected Levels (TRYbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
Turkey Commercial Banking SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Banking Sector Outlook
Table: South East Europe Banking Sector Overview
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011f
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn)
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$)
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011
Turkey Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
Table: Turkey Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
Market Structure
Protagonists
Table: Protagonists In Turkey’s Commercial Banking Sector
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
List Of Banks
Table: Major Deposit Banks In Turkey
Company Profiles
Halkbank
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (TRYmn, unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
Turkiye Is Bankasi
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (TRYmn, unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
Akbank
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (TRYmn, unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
HSBC Bank AS
Turkiye Garanti Bankas?
Turkiye Vak?flar Bankas?
Yap? ve Kredi Bankas?
Finansbank
DenizBank
Turk Ekonomi Bankas?
BMI Banking Sector Methodology
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators Skip to top