MP Advisors: Market Research Reports

... Biosimilars opportunity. AMGN is trading below the NPV of its marketed products + net debt ($92.0/s) and in light of upcoming catalysts, we ... more details on pipeline products, please read our report released on 8th Nov. 2012, titled, “Amgen - Launched Products + Geographical Expansion Should Sustain the ...

Galapagos (GLPG) released latest PhIIa data of GLPG0634 (PhII, a selective JAK1 ... , please read our report released on 8th Nov. 2012, titled, “Galapagos - Poised to Oust Pfizer’s Xeljanz (tofacitinib) and Other Oral JAKs on Efficacy and ...

We continue to like Biogen Idec (BIIB) as next year is also going to be eventful: Approval and launch of BG-12 ( ... , please read our report released on 7th Nov. 2012, titled, “Biogen Idec - Diversification and Strong Foothold in MS to Reign”.

Novartis released final outcome data from Phase-3 study (RELAX-AHF) exploring Serelaxin in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure patients at AHA. Although RLX-30 demonstrated a 37% statistically significant ...

Pfizer has been granted FDA approval for Xeljanz (tofacitinib) 5 mg twice daily for the ... fortnightly (subcutaneous) or much less frequent than tofacitinib. Besides no differentiation from a clinical perspective ... alpha therapy. Pfizer is also planning to discuss with FDA for the role of tofacitinib as first-line ...

Q2FY13 result was ahead of our estimates largely on account of higher than ... base. On a longer term basis, we do not remain enthused about Cipla’s inhaler opportunity in Europe as it has lost the first mover advantage ... estimate by 7-8%. We upgrade our target price to Rs.360 but retain our Market Perform rating.

... we have continuously mentioned as the biggest problem for Dishman. Management now intends enter the global generic business so ... as to utilize the idle capacity. However, the management is probably late in realizing this as it will ... and also retain our Underperform rating on Dishman with target price of Rs.47

BIOCON - Market Perform, Result helped by unsustainable other income We reiterate our Market Perform rating on Biocon despite the Q2 FY13 result being higher than our estimates. ... values Syngene at ~11x EV/EBITDA – 16% higher than Biocon’s market valuation. We keep our estimate unchanged. We now rollover our ...

INDIA PHARMA Sub: DR REDDY’S LAB - Market Perform, Great Result, Still Growth to Remain Modest We reiterate our Market Perform rating on DRRD with an upward ... our estimate largely due to high growth in the US generics market business (17% Q-o-Q, constant currency). Other expenses remained lower sequentially ...

... Subject: GILEAD – Life Cycle Management for HIV and HCV Pipeline = Upside Abstract 3Q12 earnings (Table 1) and revised upward revenue guidance validates Gilead’s (GILD ... , please read our report released on 1st Nov., 2012, titled, “Life Cycle Management for HIV and HCV Pipeline = Upside”. Report type – Deep ...

Abstract Alexion (ALXN) products lack any near term competition ... products beyond Soliris. The fall in the stock price of Alexion (ALXN) despite robust 3Q12 earnings presents a long term buying ... read our report released on 31st September, 2012, titled, “ Innovative Drugs for Orphan Diseases Focus = Stability!”

INDIA PHARMA Subject: IPCA – Outperform, Momentum Continues We reiterate our Outperform on Ipca post its Q2 ... forward sales growth will be driven by (1) continuing growth in the anti malarial tender business to WHO ... to US likely from FY13 and (3) continuing growth from India and other branded markets. While we ...

INDIA PHARMA Subject: LUPIN - Market Perform, Margin worry on base business Lupin’s Q2FY13 result was largely inline with our estimates, however, ... R&D expense. Ex-branded US generic sales declined sequentially despite Combivir gaining market share in Q2 FY13. All these indicate pressure on the US base ...

... core business, bonus upside from positive data of IVIG in AD, and an attractive risk-reward profile, Grifols SA (GRF) is our preferred choice among three ... coverage initiation report released on 22nd Oct., 2012 on GRF titled, “GRIFOLS SA - IVIG Opportunity in AD - Dark Knight”.

... barriers that Biosimilar players should be aware. The report – “Risk – Reward of Developing a Herceptin biosimilar – A thorough assessment” looks into several aspects of potential ... their impact on Market Opportunity Global Regulatory Process and Hurdles Risk/Reward profile of developing Herceptin biosimilar

... of QVA-149 from fifth and final successful pivotal clinical study result (SPARK) from IGNITE program on August 30th, 2012. The fixed dose LABA ... in the US and 2012-2013 in the EU and hence any market share loss would be immaterial from Pfizer perspective. The LABA/LAMA FDC will also ...

... , RRMS) by at least 6 months or more will be perceived as a modest positive for Biogen Idec (BIIB) which should continue to dominate the MS space. BIIB has ... read our report released on 27th August, 2012 on BIIB titled, “Refuse to File Letter" to Lemtrada = Modest Positive for BIIB”.

ESC - 2012 Update: Effient, Vorapaxar and Tredaptive - Effient misses TRIOLOGY ACS - Competitive Risk Overhang on Brilinta Removed!; ... Thrive on Track to A quick take on Key Presentations at ESC 2012 Effient Failure in TRILOGY ACS: We see Effient failure to demonstrate benefit in medically managed ACS patients ...

Medivir’s (MVIR) future depends on the successful launch and sales of Simeprevir (TMC435, once daily Protease Inhibitor, PI, PhIII, HCV, partnered ... these future options. Increasing Possibility of BMY accelerating development of daclatasvir/simeprevir IFN-free combination……. For more detail, please read our ...

... , Eli-Lilly announced top line results from most awaited PhIII EXPEDITION trials of Solanezumab. The ... study along with Interventional treatment either with Solanezumab or placebo. The final data which ... will be crucial to measure the real efficacy of Solanezumab. Besides with majority of patients (two third) in ...

... We reiterate Sun Pharma as our ... Sun pharma’s offer at $39.5 as a great positive for Sun pharma. Besides the attractive valuation (~7x PE), the merger will allow Sun to generate cost synergy (shifting facility to India ... merger of Taro that will add ~8-10% to Sun’s profitability in FY13 (assuming merger closure by ...

Roche reported that Avastin plus radiation and temozolomide chemotherapy significantly ...

We reiterate our Underperform on Aurobindo after its Q1 FY13 result that was in line with our ...

... the setback to Brivanib (BMS, HCC) have swung the wind in Onyx’s (ONXX) favor. Kyprolis has the first mover advantage in catering ... detail, please read our report released on 9th Aug. 2012, on Onyx Pharma titled “In the Driver’s Seat, with Kyprolis Approval”.

... from Hospira JV as it launched 2 new products in Europe and in US each in last 2 quarters. Besides this launch of Urokinase in US in 2015 remains a longer term opportunity ...

Discontinuation of Bapinezumab IV in Alzheimer disease should knock off the speculation value ... recommendation in the near future. We reiterate our market perform rating on Pfizer with a PT of $21.

Celgene’s (CELG) 2Q12 results lifted the gloom around news related to ... and EU by YE12 / in early 1Q13). However, … For more detail, please read our report released on 3rd Aug, 2012, titled, “Waiting for More Positives…”

... reiterate our Outperform rating on IPCA with an increased target price post ... had a low base. On the other hand, Ipca received the much awaited USFDA approval for its ... 18x to FY13 EPS. The higher PEx is justified due to better visibility of earnings post USFDA approval and Coarsucam prequalification. We retain ...

... due to the serious safety issue (cardiac failure) observed in high dose arm (200 mg) is clearly negative and we see the potential risk ... -reward profile of an investment in BMY at the current valuations unfavorable. With the kind of competitive dynamics ...

DISH reported Y-o-Y growth of sales, EBITDA and net profit by 33%, 94% and 155% respectively – much above our estimates. The outperformance was on account of (1) a favorable forex that has the maximum impact on a company like DISH with 100% exports and completely unhedged forex position. We estimate 15% ...

Alexion (ALXN) earnings and diversification strategy through acquisition of drugs targeting niche indications makes it a compelling long term investment proposition. ... , please read our report released on 1st Aug, 2012, titled, “Innovative Drugs for Orphan Diseases = Driving Expectations and Valuations!”

... expects to sustain 17-18% growth in domestic formulations. Going forward, we do not expect Vancomycin to be a significant opportunity given Akorn’s (Cipla’s marketing partner) inability to gain ... an insignificant change in the earnings. We thus reiterate our Market Perform rating with a target price of Rs.340.

Vertex (VRTX) reported declining sales of INCIVEK (L, HCV, Protease inhibitor, PI) in 2Q12 vs. 1Q12 (down by 8% to $328m), much below ... , please read our report released on 1st Aug, 2012, titled, “INCIVEK’s Life Extension by ALS-2200?”

Robust sales growth from its established and newly launched products, returns through payout through a ... markets (Brazil, Turkey), and divest pipeline products smartly while retaining full rights for a ... sales growth … For more detail, please read our report released on 31st July, 2012, titled, “Product sales + ...

Gilead (GILD) continues to dominate in the HIV space and poised to repeat ... , please read our report released on 31st July, 2012, titled, “Creating Value and Promising Growth for Long Term”.

Approval of Vascepa (formerly AMR-101, pharma-grade ethyl ... in severe hypertriglyceridemia (> 500mg/dL) was in line with our expectations. Vascepa should gain a significant market share on the strength of its benefits ... our report released on 27th July, 2012, titled, “VASCEPA - “Suitable Partner” Coming Soon”.

Biogen Idec (BIIB) is one of our top picks for 2012, as it promises growth on ... , please read our report released on 26th July, 2012, titled, “BG-12: Next Oral MS Pill – Driving Valuations”.

We maintain our Market Perform rating after Q1 FY13 that remained below our earnings estimate mainly due to the high R&D, marketing expenses and tax. Y-o-Y EBITDA grew by 70% largely led by generic Geodon and forex. Adjusting to generic Geodon and forex, we estimate the EBITDA growth to be ~13% and that too ...

Today Sanofi reported positive proof of efficacy and safety data for tetravalent Dengue vaccine. Although the data supports efficacy, but falls short of winning ... investor’s conviction, as evidence of efficacy was observed only in three out ...

... ’s ability to buffer the setbacks in the pipeline. In today’s 2Q12 earnings, Regeneron (REGN) reported sales of $194m way above street expectations (our ...

... launch by 4Q12 ahead of rival drug, Arena/Eisai's Belviq (loracaserin, 5-HT2C receptor agonist) should give Vivus (VVUS) the first mover advantage, as Qsymia ... , please read our report released on July 19, 2012 on VVUS, titled “Qsymia’s Launch and Ex-US Partnership = Growth Drivers

We recommend MRK and Roche as our Top pick from Global pharma space. NVS as well is interesting, trading at defensive valuations, but except ... they do one could see up to 30-40% upside from current levels. Our screening criteria is based on: Expected News flow from Pipeline and Potential ...

We upgrade MRK from Market Perform to Outperform with a 12 month TP of $45. With evidence base around its late stage ...

... encouraging and similar outcome from four late stage studies can bring Dolutegravir in forefront of anti-HIV therapy – this is the first ... changing in anti-HIV regime, we expect dolutegravir has potential to cross $2.5b. In this report we have analyzed dolutegravir opportunity in mono-thx and in combination ...

... competitor Ixempra (BMY), competition is mounting and we expect it to reach half of the Eisai’s estimates i.e. ~$1b in best case scenario. Following Halaven, Eisai has three late stage ...

... for opportunities in “Drugs for Bad Bugs”, we reinstate our coverage on Basilea Pharma (BSLN), as it is trading close to cash value and offers a favorable ... our initiation report released on 9th July, 2012 on BSLN titled “Ceftobiprole - A Free Option?

Mitsubishi Tanabe (MT) announcement to acquire US marketing rights of Collategene (preparing PhIII, PAD, Anges) ... (MTP) - but are subject to PhIII outcome of Collategene. A solid data in PhIII will prompt MT to ... analyze that the concept and approach of Collategene carries an attractive ‘high-risk-high-reward ...

Drug resistance is a growing concern worldwide and Cempra (CEMP) is one of our lead recommendations ... offer an attractive investment opportunity in this therapy class. CEMP’s lead drug, 1. Solithromycin (CEM-101, PhIII, CABP; PhII cUTI) ... released on 2nd July, 2012 on CEMP titled “GAIN from Drugs for Bad Bugs”